Arun Nehru
Political Powerplay
UP polls acid test for Congress
Jan 30th
Election campaigns and forecasts are not new to me. I went on my first election to Sitapur [my grandmother Uma Nehru was the MP] in 1952 at the age of eight. I remember little except the ‘cold’ water breaks in a grueling schedule on dusty roads and was fascinated by the Electrolux refrigerators which worked on kerosene burners!
Things today are very different. While there is no such thing as an easy election, there is little doubt in my mind that politics today is far more complicated then what I have seen and experienced over the last few decades. A few days and the battle for Uttar Pradesh will start. It is time to focus on issues connected with the elections.
The media coverage in this election is fantastic. I must admit that due to writing in several regional papers, my three cell phones and all three email accounts are flooded by field reports and seat surveys. There are dozens of these as every political party, every media outlet and several independents are doing quality work in the field and the details in the Regional press, available in their e-paper, are of a very high level. There is little coverage of Manipur. Knowing the area well, I tried to do my homework but was flooded by information and simply unable to keep a track of events!
There is high interest in the Uttarakhand and the Punjab elections but low coverage on Goa and Manipur. This is sad. Now of course, all attention will be on Uttar Pradesh and this electoral battle will determine the politics for 2012 -2014 and give a peep into the future.
I respect every survey report but the recent report showing the NDA ahead of the UPA does not make political sense. While 2011 has not been a good year for the UPA, it has been much worse for the NDA and I think this will be reflected in the five- State Assembly elections.
The battle for Uttar Pradesh will now start in real earnest. While the BSP and the SP may fight for the first two spots, the performance of the Congress and the BJP will be critical for their future needs. I have mentioned before, that the Congress already holds 16 out of 20 Lok Sabha seats in the four States of Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa but a victory here will create a great psychological factor for the Congress as they complete the balance part of their term from 2012-2014. The BJP may lose out in Goa, Punjab and Uttarakhand and come a poor fourth in UP – a clear indicator that the NDA may well be led by the Regional forces instead of the BJP. Uttar Pradesh is also an acid test or the Congress but I think they will do well and an impressive Third is very much on the cards.
Politics is about hard realities. The Congress needs stability at the Center for the next two years and with the erratic behavior of the AITC, it is essential to have either the SP or the BSP with them. This will happen, unless the BSP and the SP arrive at a power sharing agreement. In politics everything is possible, as we have seen over the years. There are many options but I think an SP and a Congress government both in the State and at the Center is very much an essential reality.
The most significant trend noticed in the elections has been the emergence of new leadership in the political parties. Rahul Gandhi, in my opinion, has already earned his political spurs and is very much the future for the Congress. Mulayam Singh yield grounds to the 38 year old Akhilesh Yadav. Sharad Pawar indicates that he has fought his last election and will resolve the leader ship issue between his daughter and his nephew and in the interim he has the high profile and competent Praful Patel to manage affairs. Sharad Pawar and Mulayam Singh have done what Farooq Abdullah and Mufti have already done in J&K and other Regional leaders may well become a liability unless they have a succession plan for the future.
All succession plans have conflicts if not implemented in time and we have a prime example in the DMK where K Karunanidhi is bogged down by two wives, two sons and a daughter and two nephews and the AIDMK have very little to do for the future.
I believe 2012 will be a good year for India. We must think in positive terms even when negative events take place and a good example is Cricket. 2011 was a disaster and 2012 was even worse but this gives an opportunity to replace both the BCCI and the Cricket team for the future. The signs were visible in 2011 but sadly as with many things the game is no longer considered a sport but a business.
The PMO has a positive induction in Pulok Chatterji. He is exceptionally bright, has high integrity values and I am happy to see a change in the media management in the PMO. Life has changed and instead of getting into conflict with the social media we must embrace it. I am glad that the PMO will use Twitter and Facebook. The blame game is something I do not believe in but there was no reason that the UPA should have had such a poor image in 2011 and clearly communication at all levels was very poor and this must change for the better. Mid-term blues can affect any government but I think this phase is over for the UPA.
I hesitate to make predictions for 2014 but Rahul Gandhi will lead the charge for the Congress in 2014 and the BJP has little option but to support Narendra Modi and much will depend on the number of seats won by either party.
Cricket is very much on my mind and in 2014 the following will be the eleven players who will determine the future – Sonia and Rahul Gandhi, Narender Modi, Prakash Karat, Nitesh Kumar, J Jayalalitha,Sharad Pawar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Naveen Patnaik. The 12th man could come from Andhra Pradesh!
Batla controversy may affect Congress
Jan 25th
The World has changed, there are few secrets and there is no subject which is exempt from public scrutiny but most governments live in denial as do senior politicians who pay little heed to public opinion till it is to late.
The controversy between the UPA and the Chief of Army on the age factor will now be determined by the Supreme Court but irrespective of who wins the system stands to lose and both sides are responsible for this mess. I am well aware of the procedures and the decision making system within the government and there are certain sensitive decisions which are handled quietly by the Minister concerned and the PM and do not come even to the CCPA. The Army chief is one of these sensitive appointments and why has this issue festered since 2006?
General VK Singh is without doubt a outstanding officer and was it not so he would not have become Army Commander and then the Chief of the Army Staff and he indicates that his DOB is 10TH May 1951 but there are a dozen documents which indicate his DOB as 10TH May 1950 and this includes the Army list but apart from all this there are three letters between Jan 2008 and Nov 2009 written by the General where he admits his DOB as 10TH May 1950 and all this is very confusing and sadly everyone is giving his own spin to the controversy! We will all become wiser after the issue is resolved by the Supreme Court but should it have come to this stage?
Assembly elections encounter the ‘big chill’ but enthusiasm has not really dampened the atmosphere and I am giving below the charts for this week. I have little knowledge of the events in Manipur and in Goa it is the real estate and the mining lobby who will hold the key to government formation as everyone can change sides to achieve their objective.
PARTY PUNJAB UTTARAKHAND UTTAR PRADESH
CONGRESS 62=65 32=37 70-75 [INC RLD]
AKALI DAL 40=43
BSP === 7=8 130=140
SP === ==== 115=125
BJP 04=06 20=24 40=45
IND 04=06 4=5 20=25
]PPP 02] [UKD 03] [PP 04]
The Punjab election is showing a clear winner in Amarinder Singh and the Congress and the Akali Dal is showing signs of weakness as the Badal family members are confined to their area and have limited mobility and their body language indicates a weak position. The last week consolidates votes for the eventual winner and the Congress may get a few more seats. Heavy anti incumbency here and even after a big victory in the Assembly in 2007 the Akali yielded the advantage in the Lok Sabha poll of 2009 where the Congress won 9 out 13 seats!
Uttaranchal may well be the ‘key’ to strategic alliances in the HILL state and even in UP as the combined numbers of the BJP and BSP along with the UKD present a challenge for the Congress and it looks like a ‘touch and go’ situation and the position is no less complicated in Uttar Pradesh where the BSP show a forward movement and there is still a month to go for elections. No single factor contributes to moving trends but the decision to cover the Mayawati statues and the elephants as they are the election symbol of the BSP has generated mass sympathy and this is not considered fair to the BSP.
The Congress and the SP were the first of the block but will now face the BSP and with a committed cadre and a vote bank they are a formidable party in the election field. The SP and the Congress attack each other on the Minority vote and while the Batla controversy will not hurt the SP, it can affect the Upper caste votes for the Congress. The quota issue has not helped in any great measure and for every positive there are also negatives in these matters. Early days as there is still a month to go but the BSP has their nose in front and between the BSP and the SP they may win 300 seats as they did on the last occasion in 2007. The anti incumbency trends visible in every State and UP is no exception but what will be the extent of the fall of the BSP from the 2007 number ?
Difficult situation for all parties but politicians for power can indulge in very complex political gymnastics and as I had indicated many of the candidates would have become millionaires even before the results are announced and now they stand to become even bigger if the ‘numbers’ indicate a close race and we could witness the most expensive auction in political history and millionaires will become billionaires! We have seen the poor response to Team Anna and they are now lost in the middle pages and credibility and public trust lost is very difficult to regain.
The points to consistently monitor is if the current trends will lead to stability for the period between 2012 and 2014 and do they give a indicator for the future? The funny thing is that those who won in 2007 lost ground in 2009 Lok Sabha and those who do well now can suffer in 2014 as political longevity can only be guaranteed by good and effective governance. All four states have 20 Lok Sabha seats and most are held by the Congress and a few by the Akali Dal in Punjab. The game changer can be UP but trend do not indicate any shock results for 2014 Lok Sabha trends.
We have chaos in Pakistan and there is nothing new in this and we have a very strange spectacle as the Army and the ISI who have the power look for a alternative and where are the leaders of Pakistan? The Bhutto family has for years had sanctuary in the UK and now Dubai is another choice for President Zardari while Nawaz Sharif stays in Saudi Arabia and President Musharraf lives in luxury in the UK and can of these leaders lead a country under Army rule and the reality is that every elected government has not survived a full term and apart from the Army has been weighed down with excessive financial assets generated during their tenure. We will deal with whoever is in power but as things stand we must remain on full alert as terror is the only industry left in Pakistan.
There is much to write about this week but governance is not about black and white issues as there are ‘grey’ areas and instant solutions rarely work. Salman Rashdie is one such issue and we must look at the very big picture and move on in life. 2012 is going to be a very difficult year for the global community and we must keep our focus on effective governance. 2011 did little credit to either the UPA or for that matter the NDA so do not expect any electoral surprises in 2012.
Polls and Cash power
Jan 19th
The EC seizures of cash seem to have tapered down and I am not surprised as the political system will fund ingenious methods of financing their candidates and while everyone talks of the mythical qualities of morality, ethics and probity in public life the reality is very different at the ground level.
Congress will win in Punjab, Uttarakhand
Jan 16th
The New Year has arrived and we start the year with high profile Assembly elections and the EC is stealing all the headlines after orders have been issued to cover all the statues of Mayawati and the elephants are being draped in ‘pink’ sheets and I presume this has been chosen as it is a neutral color and these would make rather interesting photographs for the future and I am not sure whether this will help or harm the cause of Mayawati and the BSP.
Arun Nehru