Politics

The 2G Octopus has surfaced again. Its multiple tentacles struck in all directions as the Supreme Court cancelled 122 licenses, exploded the zero loss theory and blamed the NDA for a decision taken by the UP, which is taking the intelligence of the voting public for granted! Many are addicted to hearing their own voice but harsh words only weaken the discretion required of those at the top of the power pyramid. The reality is, that the UPA made serious errors in allowing the DMK to commit these criminal activities. A Raja has been in jail for over a year and Kanimozi  spent close to six months there. This is the reality of the 2G scam. The Trial Court absolved P Chidambaram from any adverse role along with A Raja. While this may not be the final word in the matter, this issue has also been settled for the moment and will have no impact on the Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.

The UPA has something to smile about but look what poor governance did in 2011 and we do not want to repeat this in 2012. The DMK was dependent on the UPA both at the Center and in the State, yet was allowed to indulge in criminal acts. It is very difficult to believe that no one in the DMK was involved. Family wars have broken out in the DMK. Both, the Congress and the DMK face a grim future in Tamil Nadu in 2014.
10 DMK Ministers have already been arrested with excessive assets and this can go on for years! Miracle of sorts that sheer greed prevented the DMK from sharing the spoils with anyone else.  It is quite amazing that no one in the Congress either at the Center or in the State was involved in corrupt acts with the DMK.
UP is getting difficult to read with every passing day. While many comment on the four different regions within the state, the reality is, that in 400 seats a hundred different trends apply and we are only now reaching the peak of the campaign.

I see the BSP and the SP ahead of the Congress with the BJP a distant fourth and while the first two can get 270-300 seats between them, I still see the Congress as a threat and the only thing holding back my upward assessment of the Congress is the fact that they have a weak organizational base and the gains of the Lok Sabha 2007 results will be difficult to repeat in an Assembly election. I see both the BSP and the SP in the range of 130-150 seats each but the Congress can also get 70-90 seats, if the BSP and the SP get 270-280 seats between them and not the 300 seats they won in 2007.

The UP elections present the best we have seen in our system as every seat is being hard fought and look at the effort being put by Mayawati, Mulayam Singh and son Akhilesh. The Congress charge is led by Rahul Gandhi and the effort of the Congress President Sonia Gandhi and Priyanka is commendable. The latter in Rae Bareli and Amethi fights for every vote and could win 8 out of 10 seats! The BJP is sadly out of the picture and are busy destroying each other. In a normal situation, star campaigners like Narendra Modi and Sushma Swaraj should have both made at least four to five election tours to the State. Something is very wrong and the multiple power bases in the RSS and the BJP will put both Gujarat and HP Assembly elections due end 2012 in jeopardy.

We have started the year well. While electoral challenges will exist through the year, the UPA at the Center must perform. I was happy to see the comments of the HM on the Kundankulam Nuclear Plant. The HM is not expected to put the cart before the horse. I think it is necessary for the government to act and although CM Tamil Nadu is opposed to the UPA, it has to tread very cautiously. The conspiracy theory is no longer in fashion but in reality these security issues persist. As we hurtle towards super power status, every available stick will be used to pull us down in the global power equation.
The IB has a very effective counter-intelligence unit. I have some knowledge of this. They provide valuable inputs into several critical fields of ‘intelligence’.
The economic crisis in the West has resulted in many countries taking steps to protect their National interests and these can range from immigration curbs to outsourcing to punitive taxes, in order to protect local industry. We have seen action taken in the USA and we face huge immigration issues in the UK. We cannot be a silent spectator to these events. The free trade syndrome is applied in a very selective manner and should we in the name of free trade allow our National interests to be compromised?

Even cheap imports which give us temporary gains can cause long term damage as they can make us dependent on others for production and distribution of energy and certain sectors will have to be restricted to Indian companies. Every country protects its interest. We have to juggle our options very carefully and there is nothing new in this. This is where the relevance of the CCPA and the CCEA is required.

Governments are elected to govern, and leaders are expected to swim against the tide of public opinion. In coalition governance, there are few soft options. Look around you and see the chaos and anarchy we have witnessed in the Middle-East and on our borders. Look at the situation in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Libya, Egypt and the violence and death we see in Syria and reflect how close we have come to anarchy in 2011.  Can we allow this to happen again in 2012?
We have a crisis in Cricket with the BCCI and the IPL and all this, is in addition, to our team of ‘ageing’ superstars who continue their bad run in Australia. The BCCI is taxing our patience and flush with T20 funds is unlikely to rock the boat. I wonder, if we are looking at the demise of Test Cricket in India in favor of the IPL circus? The sad thing is that many in the BCCI are also members of the Union Council of Ministers. Is it right for either function to be used as a part time commitment? Politics and cricket, both seem to suffer from a common ailment, as we cling to the past, when we should be looking at the future.