The World has changed, there are few secrets and there is no subject which is exempt from public scrutiny but most governments live in denial as do senior politicians who pay little heed to public opinion till it is to late.

The controversy between the UPA and the Chief of Army on the age factor will now be determined by the Supreme Court but irrespective of who wins the system stands to lose and both sides are responsible for this mess. I am well aware of the procedures and the decision making system within the government and there are certain sensitive decisions which are handled quietly by the Minister concerned and the PM and do not come even to the CCPA. The Army chief is one of these sensitive appointments and why has this issue festered since 2006?

General VK Singh is without doubt a outstanding officer and was it not so he would not have become Army Commander and then the Chief of the Army Staff and he indicates that his DOB is 10TH May 1951 but there are a dozen documents which indicate his DOB as 10TH May 1950 and this includes the Army list but apart from all this there are three letters between Jan 2008 and Nov 2009 written by the General where he admits his DOB as 10TH May 1950 and all this is very confusing and sadly everyone is giving his own spin to the controversy! We will all become wiser after the issue is resolved by the Supreme Court but should it have come to this stage?

Assembly elections encounter the ‘big chill’ but enthusiasm has not really dampened the atmosphere and I am giving below the charts for this week. I have little knowledge of the events in Manipur and in Goa it is the real estate and the mining lobby who will hold the key to government formation as everyone can change sides to achieve their objective.

PARTY                   PUNJAB      UTTARAKHAND        UTTAR PRADESH

CONGRESS            62=65              32=37                           70-75 [INC RLD]

AKALI DAL           40=43

BSP                          ===                   7=8                          130=140

SP                            ===                 ====                          115=125

BJP                         04=06              20=24                           40=45

IND                        04=06                 4=5                            20=25
]PPP 02]       [UKD 03]                    [PP 04]

The Punjab election is showing a clear winner in Amarinder Singh and the Congress and the Akali Dal is showing signs of weakness as the Badal family members are confined to their area and have limited mobility and their body language indicates a weak position. The last week consolidates votes for the eventual winner and the Congress may get a few more seats. Heavy anti incumbency here and even after a big victory in the Assembly in 2007 the Akali yielded the advantage in the Lok Sabha poll of 2009 where the Congress won 9 out 13 seats!

Uttaranchal may well be the ‘key’ to strategic alliances in the HILL state and even in UP as the combined numbers of the BJP and BSP along with  the UKD present a challenge for the Congress and it looks like a ‘touch and go’ situation and the position is no less complicated in Uttar Pradesh where the BSP show a forward movement and there is still a month to go for elections. No single factor contributes to moving trends but the decision to cover the Mayawati statues and the elephants as they are the election symbol of the BSP has generated mass sympathy and this is not considered fair to the BSP.

The Congress and the SP were the first of the block but will now face the BSP and with a committed cadre and a vote bank they are a formidable party in the election field. The SP and the Congress attack each other on the Minority vote and while the Batla controversy will not hurt the SP, it can affect the Upper caste votes for the Congress. The quota issue has not helped in any great measure and for every positive there are also negatives in these matters. Early days as there is still a month to go but the BSP has their nose in front and between the BSP and the SP they may win 300 seats as they did on the last occasion in 2007. The anti incumbency trends visible in every State and UP is no exception but what will be the extent of the fall of the BSP from the 2007 number ?

Difficult situation for all parties but politicians for power can indulge in very complex political gymnastics and as I had indicated many of the candidates would have become millionaires even before the results are announced and now they stand to become even bigger if the ‘numbers’ indicate a close race and we could witness the most expensive auction in political history and millionaires will become billionaires! We have seen the poor response to Team Anna and they are now lost in the middle pages and credibility and public trust lost is very difficult to regain.

The points to consistently monitor is if the current trends will lead to stability for the period between 2012 and 2014 and do they give a indicator for the future? The funny thing is that those who won in 2007 lost ground in 2009 Lok Sabha and those who do well now can suffer in 2014 as political longevity can only be guaranteed by good and effective governance. All four states have 20 Lok Sabha seats and most are held by the Congress and a few by the Akali Dal in Punjab. The game changer can be UP but trend do not indicate any shock results for 2014 Lok Sabha trends.

We have chaos in Pakistan and there is nothing new in this and we have a very strange spectacle as the Army and the ISI who have the power look for a alternative and where are the leaders of Pakistan? The Bhutto family has for years had sanctuary in the UK and now Dubai is another choice for President Zardari while Nawaz Sharif stays in Saudi Arabia and President Musharraf  lives in luxury in the UK and can of these leaders lead a country under Army rule and the reality is that every elected government has not survived a full term and apart from the Army has been weighed down with excessive financial assets generated during their tenure. We will deal with whoever is in power but as things stand we must remain on full alert as terror is the only industry left in Pakistan.

There is much to write about this week but governance is not about black and white issues as there are ‘grey’ areas and instant solutions rarely work. Salman Rashdie is one such issue and we must look at the very big picture and move on in life. 2012 is going to be a very difficult year for the global community and we must keep our focus on effective governance. 2011 did little credit to either the UPA or for that matter the NDA so do not expect any electoral surprises in 2012.